us foreign policy
Who is driving the Iran-Israel-US escalation?: Regional voices
The sound the sirens make You learn the difference between the warning siren and the all-clear siren the way you learn your mother’s voice — not because anyone teaches you, but because the alternative is dying confused.... Who is driving the Iran-Israel-US escalation?: Non-interventionists
Two tours and a line item Eighteen months in Anbar Province. Eight months in Helmand. We watched the Kabul airport footage from a living room in Virginia and understood the specific weight of a twenty-year investment collapsing in eleven days. $18 billion.... Who is driving the Iran-Israel-US escalation?: Diplomatic realists
The compliance reports nobody reads The JCPOA was signed on July 14, 2015, in Vienna. We can still recite the sunset clauses. The Arak heavy-water reactor redesigned to produce less than one kilogram of weapons-grade plutonium.... Who is driving the Iran-Israel-US escalation?: Deterrence hawks
Twelve minutes 180 ballistic missiles. October 1, 2024. Shahab-3s and Fattah-1s on trajectories aimed at Nevatim Air Base and Mossad headquarters. The flight time from Iranian launch sites to Israeli targets is twelve minutes. That is not a gesture. That is an attempt.... Who is driving the Iran-Israel-US escalation?: The Story
180 ballistic missiles, twelve minutes of flight time Roughly 180 Iranian ballistic missiles arced toward Israel on October 1, 2024. Not the telegraphed drone swarm of April, designed to be intercepted and interpreted. Ballistic missiles — fast, aimed at airbases.... Who started the Ukraine war?: NATO expansion critics
The cable they read and ignored Burns sent it February 1, 2008. Four pages, classified. He did not hedge. Ukrainian NATO membership is the brightest of all redlines for the entire Russian political class. Not a Putin problem. A Russia problem.... Is China's rise a threat or an opportunity for the USA?: Developmental integration
The wrong axis Threat or opportunity is a question that assumes the answer is one word. We think the answer is a century. Every industrial power in the last three hundred years has gone through a sequence: export-driven growth, military modernization, nationalist consolidation,... What happens if China moves on Taiwan?: Strategic ambiguity
The interview that almost started a war In 2001, Bush told an interviewer the US would do "whatever it took" to defend Taiwan. By afternoon, his staff was walking it back. The episode triggered the most dangerous spike in cross-Strait tensions since 1996. Clarity sounds strong.... I may have Just found a way to save the US about $100 billion in military expense.
Today’s headline: “Iran shuts Strait of Hormuz to international shipping. Vows to sink US Navy”. Wait, my bad - that’s been Iran’s press release every month for the past decade. (see link below). I’m going to side with the “America First” crowd this time.... Russia providing Iran with nuclear weapons is not backfiring of US intervention in Iran
I see people ridiculing the US interventions using the claim that U.S. interventions backfired because Russia would provide Iran with nuclear weapons. This is false on two counts: 1.... Thoughts from a lefty
As someone more on the left, it’s always depressing to watch these debates. Both candidates pro war, ignoring Israeli aggression, both want to drill more fossil fuels—which will drive climate change regardless of how much windmills you build, and lies about immigration....